Andreas Forø Tollefsen

Senior Researcher

Andreas Forø Tollefsen
Mobile phone: (+47) 930 83 003

Research Interests

  • Conflict-induced migration
  • Migrant-host interactions 
  • Environmental stress and armed conflict
  • Development and health consequences of conflict violence
  • Geospatial data and methods
I am a Human Geographer and my research focuses on the causes and consequences of armed conflict, primarily at the sub-national level using quantitative geospatial data. I am currently leading the Young Researcher Talent project "Geographies of Conflict-Induced Migration (CONMIG)", where we use mixed-methods to understand how different forms of violence and levels of intensity affect forced migration, and to where individuals are likely to flee. I am also part of the TRUST project, where we research attitudinal impacts of refugees on host communities in the global south. I have also worked on the effect of aid on infant mortality rate, the effect of conflict on maternal health and child mortality, the impact of droughts on conflict and land ownership, and how conflict affects the local physical environment. 

Much of my work focuses on the use of geospatial data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for research on the causes and consequences of conflict. I am interested in how to integrate new data sources in new ways, that can enable us to study new research questions, and enable research at a more local geographical level, shifting focus away from the country as the unit of analysis. I am also interested in how to use local geospatial data for forecasting conflict and migration, allowing humanitarian actors better prioritize among areas of operation and prepare for impending emergencies. 


Working Experience

Senior Researcher, PRIO, 2016 - present.

Associated Researcher, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), 2016 - 2019.

Postdoctoral Fellow, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, 2017.

Ph.D. Candidate, Human Geography, University of Oslo, 2011 - 2016.

Researcher, Centre For The Study of Civil War, PRIO, 2010 - 2016.

Research assistant, Centre For The Study of Civil War, PRIO, 2008 - 2010.


Ph.D. in Human Geography, University of Oslo, Defended November 4, 2016. Title of the Dissertation: "Local Dynamics of Civil War". Download here: Tollefsen_PhD_Avhandling.pdf

M.A. in Geography, Norwegian University of Science and Technology and Peace Research Institute, Oslo, 2008 - 2010.

B.A. degree in Geography from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 2005 - 2008.


Stuart A. Bremer Graduate Travel Award 2009.


The following publications are specific to the PRIO Migration Centre. A more complete list is available at

All Publications

Popular Article

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Marta Bivand Erdal (2022) Staying Rather than Leaving? Displacement and Conflict-Exposure in Ukraine, PRIO Blogs, 30 May.

Report - External Series

Erdal, Marta Bivand; Mathilde Bålsrud Mjelva; & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2023) Conflict-related determinants of migration, QuantMig Background Paper. .
Vestby, Jonas; Andreas Forø Tollefsen; & Halvard Buhaug (2022) Climate and International Migration Flows: A Sensitivity Analysis of Gravity Model Specifications, QuantMig Background Paper. Oslo: PRIO.